Independently from cloud covering, that as Imazon always remembers us is a main issue on satellite monitoring, it is a fact that deforestation rates are still low after early 2000s peak.

Government and NGOs have an important role on those results, but the real test for Brazilian efforts on policy and field actions will be when agriculture commodities prices pick up.

When soy beans and corn prices rise again, farmers income will rise, they will be able to pay their debts and apply their savings on expanding their operations. That means they will increase the plantation areas, buying cheaper land previously used for cattle ranching.

Cattle ranchers will them have to buy new land to raise their animals and it is likely that they will get forested or recently deforested land from illegal loggers.

So the truth is that the main driver for deforestation is the agriculture commodities prices and the impact of those prices on capital stock for agriculture expansion in Brazil.

The interesting thing right now is that commodity prices are still very high and lenders have resumed lending to farmers and ranchers. We're in a low cycle for cattle, so will the current trend hold when ranchers start to rebuild their herds?

Commodities aren't high from the Brazilian farmer perspective. Fx rates keep the income of farmers low (estimates are that Real is 30% overpriced) and the expenses on agricultural imputs are increasing as farmers are more dependent from traders and transgenic seeds.

But as soon as the world economy picks up again, pressuring commodity prices and meat demand, the truth will reveal itself.